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Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said today, in no uncertain terms, that Georgia will lose South Ossetia. He also extended this forecast to the separatist enclave of Abkhazia, saying that it was "unlikely Ossetians and Abkhazians will ever be able to live together with Georgia in one state."

In fact, South Ossetia and Abkhazia have enjoyed de facto independence from Georgia for well over a decade, although international recognition has not followed. There are ethnic, religious and cultural differences between the two regions and Tbilisi that make unification impossible, even if the international community recognizes them as one country. Put bluntly, South Ossetians and Abkhazians hate Georgians and vice versa.

The key question moving forward, then, is not Georgia's role in the two regions, but Russia's. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov assured us in the Financial Times Tuesday that "Russia has no intention of annexing or occupying any part of Georgia and has again affirmed its respect for its sovereignty."

But in Russia's eyes, respect for the Georgian sovereignty still makes Abkhazia and South Ossetia fair game. Lavrov also notes that the majority of South Ossetia's people are Russian citizens, glossing over the fact that Moscow has been conveniently issuing South Ossetians Russian passports for years, making direct intervention in the region a necessity to "protect Russian citizens."

Seasoned Russia hand Strobe Talbott worries that the Kremlin might attempt to "Balkanize" the Caucasus, bringing the surrounding territories under Russian control in the same manner that Slobodan Milosevic tried to reunite the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s:

If [Lavrov] has given the world a glimpse of the Russian endgame, it's dangerous in its own right and in the precedent it would set. South Ossetia and Abkhazia might be set up as supposedly independent countries ("just like Kosovo," the Russians would say) -- but would in fact be satrapies of Russia."

Stay tuned.

Picking up on Katie's post: What happens when you give in to a massive lobbying effort, somehow believe bogus promises of improvement, wallow in corruption, and ultimately give the Olympics to a country that never deserved them? Just ask the International Olympic Committee:

IOC spokeswoman Giselle Davies said journalists should not be prevented from doing their jobs, a day after John Ray of London-based ITV News said he was wrestled to the ground and briefly held by police who apparently mistook him for a protester.

Asked repeatedly if IOC officials are embarrassed that China was not living up to its promises, Davies would only say they are happy with the way China is running the sporting events."

And, of course, the opening ceremony was lovely.

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Although relations have warmed somewhat between the two Koreas in recent years, that trend appears to be retreating -- rapidly.

Last month, a North Korean soldier shot an unarmed South Korean tourist while she was visiting Mt. Kumgang, a tourist area in the North operated by a South Korean company (shown at right). In response, South Korea suspended future tours to Mt. Kumgang and ordered all South Korean residents to leave the resort.

Now, the North Koreans have returned the favor, changing the wording on their official invitation to South Korean tourists. Chosun Ilbo's editorial board has more:

The words 'We invite' and 'guarantee the safety' of the visitor has been changed to 'agree' (to the visit) and 'offer accommodation.'... Without a formal safety guarantee, whether it is for Mt. Kumgang or Pyongyang, it has become dangerous for South Koreans to set foot on North Korean soil simply hoping that nothing will go wrong."

I guess it is now, if not impossible to travel to Mt. Kumgang, at least highly inadvisable.

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While Americans have been enthralled with the performances of God-King Michael Phelps, their neighbors to the north are starting to get a bit worried. The reason? Canada hasn't won a medal yet.

The team, which won 12 overall medals in Athens, does expect some wins in the coming days. And the hapless Canucks are nowhere close to some of the worst Olympians of all time, thanks largely to their prowess in winter sports. Still, as Mark Spector laments in the Toronto-based National Post, folks in Canada are starting to get a bit worried:

Togo has a medal. Michael Phelps has five. Azerbaijan has three. Kyrgyzstan has two.

We'll pass them all by the end, barring an absolute disaster, but still, as the calls from editors begin to roll into the press centres here - all looking for the "What's going wrong?" angle that usually doesn't arrive for a few more days at these things - it is clear that Canadians are getting edgy."

Spector's piece also speaks to the incredibly high cost of churning out top-tier Olympic athletes, comparing powerhouses like China and the United States to the New York Yankees, who pay obscene amounts of money and are highly successful (although he should have used a team that actually wins these days, such as, ahem, my own Boston Red Sox).

It's tough to argue with his point. The deck is obviously stacked for the likes of China and the United States, where no matter the price for Olympic glory, people are willing to pay for it. Of course, it also helps when you hand-pick your gymnasts at age three or four, cut them off from their families, and then have them compete in the Olympics when they're 13.

As hopes fade for a fair power-sharing deal in Zimbabwe, this should come as the world's smallest surprise:

President Robert Mugabe has awarded a medal to Zimbabwe's election chief during a third day of talks to resolve the country's political crisis. He honoured George Chiweshe, head of the Zimbabwe Election Commission (ZEC), who has been criticised for his handling of the country's recent polls.

But wait, there's more:

The beneficiaries included Happyton Bonyongwe, head of the Central Intelligence Organisation which is accused of seizing, torturing and killing many MDC activists before the second vote in June; and Paradzai Zimondi, the prison service chief who said he would never recognise a Tsvangirai victory.

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Remember Jean-Marie Le Pen, the ultra-nationalist French politician who shocked the world by reaching the second round of France's 2002 presidential election? The leader of the anti-immigrant, anti-semitic, anti-everything Front National is more or less a Ku Klux Klan member who was born on the wrong continent.

That's why it's so beautifully ironic that, faced with millions of Euros worth of debt after voters apparently didn't respond so well to his "Keep France for the French" motto in the 2007 legislative elections, Le Pen's party is selling its lavish Paris headquarters to a Chinese university. Perhaps the Front had trouble finding a pure-blooded French buyer willing to be associated with them.

The Guardian writes that the well-known building next to the Seine was "a symbol of the upward mobility of the party when it was purchased 18 years ago." I guess the sale is a symbol of the party's future drowning in the neighboring river.

These are tough times for Le Pen. He already had to sell his bulletproof car on eBay to try to pay off debts. Hopefully the dear leader of French neo-Fascism will be able to keep his white hood and robe.

ESPN has the reactions from the French squad after last night's race:

A fingertip did the victory," said Amaury Leveaux, one of the French swimmers. "It is nothing."

Apparently they didn't learn their lesson.

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In a pointed gesture, the U.S. Olympic team has voted Lopez Lomong, a member of the track team who gained American citizenship in 2007 after fleeing Sudan and spending a decade in a Kenyan refugee camp, as its flag bearer for the opening ceremony in Beijing.

Lomong was abducted at age six by militiamen looking to recruit child soliders. He managed to escape with two other boys and was grabbed by Kenyan authorities after he unknowingly crossed the border. Lomong was one of the 4,000 "lost boys" of Sudan who were resettled in foster homes throughout the United States in 2001. Lomong is also currently a member of the Team Darfur activist group whose cofounder -- American speedskater and Turin gold medalist Joey Cheek -- had his visa revoked by Chinese authorities two days ago.

Lomong's selection is certainly a touching gesture from his fellow athletes, and the Sudanese-American runner is ecstatic, saying that Friday will be "the happiest day" of his life. What effect it will have on U.S.-China relations is uncertain, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that China will not be able to hide from its Darfur policy simply by putting on the world's biggest fireworks show and wowing foreign dignitaries.

I would be absolutely shocked if the Olympics pass without some sort of dramatic protest or political statement from an athlete or group of athletes, on a podium or elsewhere. One English basketball player, formerly with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic, has said that Olympians have an obligation to speak out against China.

It may not be 1968, but that doesn't mean the gloves won't come off.

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Officers in Mauritania's military have overthrown the government of President Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi and established a ruling military junta led by the former chief guard to the president. Abdallahi had been the first democratically elected leader in 20 years, but has come under fire recently for catering to hard-line Islamists. The coup comes after two weeks of political turmoil, which included a vote of no-confidence in the cabinet, a walk-out by 48 members of parliament and the dismissal of several top military officials. The president's daughter called it "a textbook coup d'etat."

Mauritania is an oil-rich country, one that scientists in 2006 predicted could churn out 300,000 barrels of oil a day. While this is just a drop in the barrel relative to the global oil market (Saudi Arabia alone provides over 10 million barrels a day), the volatile mixture of oil and political instability is never good for a country or for a region, as the Nigerian example clearly shows. It is also noteworthy that Mauritania is an Islamic republic that recognizes Israel, and that it has its own terrorism problem, with four French tourists murdered last December by al Qaeda affiliates.

Although these factors might make you think that Mauritania is a nation of strategic interest for the U.S., it shouldn't exactly shock you that this isn't making headline news in American newspapers. You almost need a shovel to find it on the websites of The New York Times or The Washington Post. A state department spokesman condemned the illegal seizure of power, but that's likely to be the extent of it.

With Darfur still the atrocity du jour, it may be hard for many Westerners to pay attention to more than one crisis in Africa.

This week's Tuesday Map comes via the New York Times.

The Times provides a cool interactive graphic that shows overall medal counts for each participating country at every summer Olympiad stretching back to 1896. Below, the 2004 Athens Games:

As you'll see as you click around the graphic, the United States' greatest athletic adversary was always the Soviet Union. Yet China has been hot on America's heels at recent summer games, and has vigorously prepared its athletes to beat the United States in Beijing. China has been emphasizing sports that award more medals, such as rowing, in a savvy effort to garner as many medals as possible. Can the Chinese do it? And if they do, how will the world react?

As FP contributor Jacob Leibenluft wrote last year, beating the United States could have political ramifications:

[E]ven if organizers can somehow pull off an Olympics free of both pollution and protestors, they can't control what happens on the field. And ironically, just as China’s leaders emphasize its "peaceful rise," the athletic juggernaut in which they have invested so much may inadvertently send the opposite message.

Watch this space. 

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With Ehud Olmert's resignation announcement today, the floodgates have opened for speculation on who will emerge as the Kadima Party's choice in the September 17 primary. As I noted earlier, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz are the two likeliest candidates. The two candidates lead in the polls at 38 percent and 33 perfect, respectively.

Daniel Levy, director of the Middle East Initiative at the New America Foundation and a one-time advisor to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, stressed to me in an interview this afternoon that the differences between the two candidates are incredible. Livni is a narrow frontrunner, he says, as numbers show her ahead of the hawkish Mofaz, who made headlines in June by saying that an Israeli strike on Iran was "unavoidable" if Iran did not abandon its nuclear program.

Levy figures that Livni has a better chance to defeat the likely Likud Party candidate, Benjamin Netanyahu, in a general election. "She's way more popular, and would be way more competitive [than Mofaz]," he says.

Livni is also a much better fit for the centrist reputation that Kadima has tried to build for itself. Mofaz? Not so much, according to Levy:

He looks and sounds a lot more like a Likud politician. He began his campaign by saying he might move to live in the Golan Heights. He has been a skeptic of the peace process. He's got quite a lot of baggage to carry... He is not considered to have been an effective chief of staff or defense minister. Many people look at the army that fought the Lebanon War [in 2006] and say, 'Well that was your army, Mofaz; you're the one who led to a lot of the cuts in training, the focus on the West Bank rather than being prepared for more significant missions.'"

But lest we rule him out, Levy says, there are quite a few things working in Mofaz's favor, including a more effective political machine inside Kadima and a potential endorsement from Olmert -- both of which are extremely important in a small, Kadima-only voting electorate.

It should be an interesting summer.

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In a (somewhat) surprising move, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has announced that he will resign after his ruling Kadima Party chooses a new leader on September 17.

And who might be replace Olmert, both from party ranks and in the next nationwide election? Check out FP's list -- which we compiled more than a year ago. Our friend Ehud was able to hang on longer than we thought.

Updated for today, we might add Shaul Mofaz, the transportation minister, to the mix. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is still the most likely to succeed Olmert -- at least within Kadima -- but the hawkish Mofaz could use the Iranian threat to his advantage. Beyond that, there's no telling whether other parties will be able to push for a general election that could unseat Kadima.

Some weeks back, I blogged on an Israeli human rights group's campaign to distribute video cameras to Palestinians, who could then capture incidents involving Israeli settlers, soliders, and the abuses that often take place as Israel continues to build new settlements in the West Bank. Recent attacks by Israeli settlers have included an assault on elderly Palestinian shepherds using sticks, as well as an attack last week on a Palestinian village by 20 Jewish settlers.

The human rights group, B'Tselem, says it has succeeded in educating not only Western readers and viewers, but also Israeli citizens, who do not always have a clear picture of what transpires in the disputed areas and settlements.

Diala Shamas, the coordinator for B'Tselem's "Shooting Back" project, explains:

It started bridging the gap between what is happening in the occupied territories and what the Israeli public can see. There is a silence surrounding not only settler violence, but abuses by the IDF as well. This footage is mostly shocking to Israelis."

The project seems to be doing some good. After footage supplied to B'Tselem by a 17-year old Palestinian girl showed a bound and blindfolded Palestinian prisoner being threatened and then shot in the foot by Israel Defense Forces troops, the IDF opened an investigation that led to the suspension of an Israeli colonel after it was discovered that he ordered a subordinate to shoot the unarmed prisoner. The Guardian has published sample footage online, which includes the shooting mentioned above.

In an ongoing struggle where neither side is innocent, the videos have the potential to help. At the very least, they can keep those on both sides, as well as international observers, more aware of what is actually going on. Who knows? They could help tilt the balance of Israeli politics away from the settler movement, and show Palestinians that nonviolence can get results. And just maybe, cameras can succeed where stones and bombs have failed.

Today's map is a source of a bit of controversy in the UK. Recent news reports have described plans to provide folks with interactive maps that display incidents of crime in any neighborhood. The maps would detail, on a street-by-street basis, where different crimes took place. It would also allow users to select different types of crime -- "serious violence," "other violence," and "youth nuisance" among others -- and highlight only those infractions in each neighborhood.

The map below shows "anti-social behaviour" in Leeds, West Yorkshire:

In case you're wondering what constitutes "anti-social behaviour," here's a quick sampling:

Street drinking, presence of drug dealers or users, soliciting, abandoned cars, illegal parking, off-road motorcycling, skateboarding, noisy neighbours, persistent alarms, shouting & swearing, fireworks, climbing on buildings, false emergency calls, uncontrolled animals, groups or individuals causing nuisance, graffiti, damage to bus-stops or buildings, dropping litter and fly-tipping."

Not everyone is happy about the map. Aside from privacy concerns, there are fears that publishing that sort of information in a rough housing market could devalue properties overnight.

It would sure make life easier for a British Bruce Wayne, though.

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Earlier this month, the International Criminal Court charged Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir with genocide for atrocities committed in the ongoing Darfur conflict. Proclaiming his innocence, Bashir responded in the way that any peace-loving leader concerned over his citizens would -- by threatening to murder even more people.

The ICC's announcement was by no means binding. The United Nations Security Council has split over a proposal by Libya and South Africa to prevent Bashir's indictment. The United States, Britain and France appeared to be quite skeptical of this plan, but South Africa has argued that prosecuting Bashir would jeopardize African Union efforts at peacekeeping in the region. South African President Thabo Mbeki explained that the peace process "require[s] very serious input by Bashir" and said "it doesn't help at this time to be considering these indictments."

The only thing less surprising than South Africa's president trying to give a free ride to someone who has committed war crimes against his own people is that they're joined on this mission by the humanitarians in Beijing. China's envoy to Sudan warned last week that the ICC's steps and Bashir's indictment could imperil the peace process in Darfur.

This logic actually makes sense. Bashir, China, and passive African leaders have been instrumental in the implementation of Darfur's genocide, so it follows that they play an active role in solving it, and it's even more important that they avoid repercussions for their actions.

Boston Red Sox slugger Manny Ramirez apparently has great faith in the success of the surge. Look at this press conference brilliance:

I don't care where I play. I can even play in Iraq if need be. My job is to play baseball."

If this latest from Ramirez comes as even a remote surprise to you, you're probably not a baseball fan.

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With the 2008 Olympic Games just 10 days away, Beijing officials are scrambling to improve the city's awful air quality. One drastic measure that city officials are considering would essentially ban 90 percent of private-owned automobiles from the roads. This comes after an initial ban has already forced residents to drive every other day.

Meanwhile, the International Olympic Commmittee has been setting a "gold standard" for unfounded praise of the Chinese capital. Just look at this press release from early July:

The city feels ready; it looks ready, with the stunning venues all completed. The quality of preparation, the readiness of the venues and the attention to operational detail for these Games have set a gold standard for the future.

Uh huh. That's why many athletes are staying in South Korea and Japan for as long as possible to avoid Beijing's smog. The U.S. Olympic Committee is even providing protective masks for American athletes. And where does the IOC stand on ozone and particulate levels that might interfere with some of the outdoor events? Here's Gunilla Lindberg, an IOC vice president:

No, it doesn't really look so good, but as I said, yesterday was better. We try to be hopeful. Hopefully we are lucky during the games as we were with Atlanta, Athens and Barcelona."

Right. Barcelona and Athens were pure luck. That's why, according to the World Bank, Beijing boasted twice the particulate matter of either of those two former Olympic cities. Twice last week, the air-quality readings in the Chinese capital were nearly double the targeted levels for developing countries set by the World Health Organization.

Maybe the resourceful Chinese can turn things around by August 8, but I wouldn't hold your breath.

Sure, Barack Obama is quite popular in Europe and has received his fair share of endorsements from unusual areas, but the Arab media has had some other things to say.

Courtesy of the Anti-Defamation League, a sampling of political cartoons from Middle Eastern media sources:

Although the ADL lists the collection under the banner of "Anti-Semitism in the Arab/Muslim World," you might want to take this with a grain of salt. Some of these cartoons are undoubtedly offensive (including some toward Obama's race), but others simply echo familiar claims and criticisms regarding the close U.S.-Israel relationship. Personally, I've seen similar cartoons in the Western media as well.

If anything, these cartoons just reinforce the Walt-Mearsheimer argument about the wellspring of anti-Americanism in many parts of the Arab world: "It's Israel, Stupid!"

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Even as a power-sharing deal between President Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF party and Morgan Tsvangirai's Opposition for Democratic Change in Zimbabwe seems to be moving forward, deep doubts still remain.

EU leaders don't seem impressed by the negotiations. Yesterday, they slapped an additional 37 people and four companies, all of whom are now blacklisted, with new sanctions including restrictions on banking and travel. This brings Zimbabwe's blacklist total -- which already included Mugabe and several members of his cabinet from earlier sanctions in 2002 -- up to 172 people.

Meanwhile, Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga -- who was in a similar position as Tsvangirai during Kenya's disputed election last December -- has said that a "peaceful, decent exit" would be appropriate for Mugabe.

Nazi Germany's bombing raids on London and other English cities in late 1940 and early 1941 destroyed millions of homes and left thousands of civilians dead. However, an estimated 1 in 10 bombs dropped by the Luftwaffe during the Blitz failed to detonate, and have remained hidden in gardens, fields and building sites.

Using Royal Air Force photographs from the time of the Blitz, as well as maps produced by insurance companies after the war, the Landmark Information Group has developed charts that label the most likely places where unexploded bombs may still be located.

Landmark Information Group

Some 21,000 sites have been labeled as likely to contain unexploded bombs. The makers of this map hope to help builders, contractors and private citizens become more aware of their surroundings. Discoveries of these bombs are fairly common. Just last month, construction on an Olympic site outside of London had to be halted after a 2000-pound bomb was unearthed.