FP contributor John Shoven is getting some much-deserved attention this week for his work on age inflation. Earlier this year, Shoven wrote in Foreign Policy about why we shouldn't fear the aging of the world's baby boomers:

The reason lies in the misleading way in which we measure age. Typically, a person's age has been determined by the number of years since his or her birth. We are so accustomed to measuring age this way that most of us have never given it a second thought. Thanks to the medical revolutions of the past century, however, life expectancies have been radically prolonged. Since 1960, the average Chinese person's life span has increased by 36 years. Over roughly 40 years, South Koreans have seen their lifetimes extended by an average of 24 years, Mexicans by 17 years, and the French by nearly a decade. Given these drastic changes, our conception of what qualifies as "old" has itself become old-fashioned.

Measuring age not by years since birth, but by mortality risk has huge implications for Social Security benefits. In 1940, a 65-year-old American man could expect to live 11 more years; today, he can expect to live 17 more years. Being 65 simply isn't what it used to be.

In a new working paper, Shoven and his co-author Gopi Shah Goda expand on this angle, producing this fascinating chart showing that if Congress had started adjusting benefits to mortality risk instead of traditional age measures in 1940, the percentage of the U.S. population receiving full Social Security benefits would be cut in half by 2050:

If Congress had enacted these changes in 2004, we'd already be looking at a 3 percentage point drop in the next few decades.

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The U.S. foreign-policy establishment has always been a little queasy about Pervez Musharraf. The question of whether the now-former Pakistani president could be trusted -- and if so, how much -- has dominated conversations around Washington since the war on terror began. Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid summed it up today when he told the NYT that since 9/11 Musharraf "continued to provide cover to the Taliban, but still managed to convince the Americans for many years that it was not a double game." Neat trick.

For all the uncertainty over the years about Musharraf's true colors, his country's future today is even more unclear. His successor might not put U.S. priorities at the top of the to-do list, and moveover, the machinations going on in Islamabad right now are opaque. And with the next Pakistani president having to contend with a growing insurgency in the tribal regions, a powerful intelligence service run amok, and a wary (and entrenched) military, the one thing we know is that he (or she, if you believe ruling coalition leader Asif Zardari) can count on a lot of headaches in his or her future.

So, does establishment Washington have a good handle on what the United States can or should do in Pakistan if everything goes to hell?

In a word, no. In the latest FP/Center for American Progress Terrorism Index, released today, the only consensus about Pakistan, according to more than 100 of America's top foreign-policy experts, is that the country is going to pose a problem going forward. More than half now consider Pakistan the next al Qaeda stronghold:

But while they agree that Pakistan is now a main front in the war on terror, they have little idea what to do about it. Asked whether the U.S. military should go into Pakistan without permission to arrest top al Qaeda leaders, a whopping 65 percent of the experts -- who have served as national security advisor, director of the CIA, and in top-leve posts at the Pentagon -- said they were unsure what the United States should do. With so much at stake, that level of uncertainty is alarming.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can't get a break at home. His newly approved interior minister, Ali Kordan, has been in office for just over a week, and a fake diploma scandal has only gained steam, complete with demands that the minister resign.

When there was a debate in parliament earlier this month over Kordan's qualifications for the post -- he's previously served as Iran's deputy oil minister and in the Revolutionary Guards -- Ahmadinejad had to go so far as to announce that Ayatollah Khamenei personally supported him, a rare (and extreme) strategy. Key to the issue were damning accusations about Kordan's honesty, with MPs claiming that Kordan lied about receiving an Oxford University law degree. So, Kordan produced his "diploma" (at right) and, with Khamenei's critical backing, sailed to approval.

Problem is, Oxford has now said the diploma is a fantasy. Have a look at the document Kordan produced: He must have made quite the impression at the university, seeing as how they saw fit to claim that his "research in the domain of comparative law... has opened a new chapter, not only in our university, but to our knowledge in this country." (Go ahead and ignore the misspellings and punctuation errors.)

When the the obviously faked diploma hit the Web, it caused a popular firestorm in Iran, with calls for Kordan to step down immediately if he can't produce the real thing. The Iranian Web site that first revealed the bogus document has now been blocked inside the country. Some analysts even think Ahmadinejad may have set Kordan up to embarrass his likely rival in the next presidential race, Ali Larijani. Kordan is a former aide to Larijani, who is also speaker of the parliament and looking slightly worse for the wear as the controversy continues. Stay tuned.

I'm hardly the first to say this, but absurdly long book subtitles are a smallish pet peeve of mine. And so, while I'm loath to throw any unintentional advertising Dick Morris's way, I have to say that his most recent book takes the "please stop" award for longest (and worst) subtitle of the summer:

Fleeced: How Barack Obama, Media Mockery of Terrorist Threats, Liberals Who Want to Kill Talk Radio, the Do-Nothing Congress, Companies That Help Iran, and Washington Lobbyists for Foreign Governments Are Scamming Us ... and What to Do About It

Some meandering Googling for research on Alzheimer's drugs led me to the Web site of the Alzheimer's Association's International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease 2008 (ICAD), which took place two weeks ago in Chicago.

And it struck me as just a little odd that the conference's home page advertises its very own cocktail: The ICADian -- part Stoli Blackberry, part Creme de Cassis, a little Chambord, some lime juice, and a splash of cranberry. Fun!

Now, don't get me wrong. I'm the last person to scold anyone for greasing a conference agenda -- tedious or otherwise -- with a little booze. It's simply that the ICADian's prominent placement on the home page provides for a wee bit of (tasteless) humor...

The Arctic oil rush is going to be messy. Need proof? Look no further than this new map from researchers at Durham University -- the first of its kind to delineate countries' current territorial claims and predict where disputes may arise in the future.

The U.S. Geological Survey last month revealed that as much as a fifth of the world's undiscovered oil and gas reserves may be in the Arctic, with perhaps as many as 90 billion barrels of oil, enough to meet current global demand for nearly three years at current rates. Heads-up to the six countries with territorial rights: Iceland, U.S., Canada, Russia, Norway and Denmark. Get ready for the scramble.

(Hat tip: Popular Science)

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With all eyes on China this week, it's refreshing to see George and Laura Bush noting that today is the 20th anniversary of pro-democracy protests in Burma that were brutally suppressed.

Last fall's Saffron Revolution was the probably the closest the country has come to mass protests since that fateful day when hundreds of thousands of Burmese took to the streets to call for democracy: 8.8.88.

The Irrawaddy, the best source of news on Burma, has a special issue today commemorating the '88 uprising. They are reporting that many people in the capital donned black clothing to mark the anniversary today, and that plainclothes police were out in force. All the while, conditions in the delta where Cyclone Nargis hit hardest remain dire, with little to no government or foreign aid coming through.

A new BBC series called Britain From Above looks absolutely stunning. Using satellite technology, the producers have created interactive, dynamic maps of the country's modern migrations -- everything from watching a sped-up version of the hundreds of ships that pass through the English Channel each day to tracking the routes of London taxis through GPS signals. The resulting dance -- around one another, off crowded thoroughfares -- is fascinating to watch. Check out the teaser below.

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Finally, a political indicator I can get behind. Coca-Cola sales are a key signal of peace and prosperity in Africa, according to an intriguing theory from Jonathan Ledgard, The Economist's Africa correspondent.

Africans buy more than 36 billion bottles of Coca-Cola each year, and the price is low enough that many even in the most impoverished villages can afford a bottle now and then. Folks love their Coca-Cola: As the largest private employer on the continent, Coca-Cola is so entrenched in hearts that people go to the grave with the stuff. And since Coca-Cola tracks its sales and distribution in Africa down to the most minute details, any swift drops in sales or problems in the distribution chain can point to real-time economic hardship and instability.

In other words, if Coke sales drop off swiftly and suddently in parts of, say, Kenya, there is a good chance that either the area has become too dangerous for deliverymen to make their rounds or that something catastrophic is happening to people's incomes. Either way, bad news.

Having been raised on Coca-Cola myself, this seems intuitive. In the O'Hara household, drinking the last Coke without picking up another 12-pack was tantamount to a declaration of war.

It's going to be hard to top this Reuters headline for hilarity:

Chavez may hug king, won't shut up

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez said on Sunday he would like to give the king of Spain a hug when he visits Europe next week, but the outspoken leader, referring to a diplomatic spat last year, said he will not shut up.

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Meet David Remes, a partner at the law firm Covington & Burling and pro bono attorney for 15 Yemenis held at Guantanamo. Since 2005, Remes, who is half Yemeni, has been a high-profile member of the legal team challenging captives' detention at Gitmo.

And now, click here -- if you dare -- to see Remes at a recent news conference where, for some inexplicable reason, he decided that dropping trou' was a good way to show the assembled press corps just what his clients have had to endure.

Just what comparison was he trying to draw? That his clients were made to stand around in their underwear? It's an utter mystery. But one enigma has been cleared up: He's not a boxers man.

Isam Al-Haj/AFP/Getty Images

If the International Criminal Court is about to issue an arrest warrant for you on charges of genocide, what might be the worst way to project an air of innocence to the world? Cue Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, whose strategy of choice in the face of international criminal charges is to threaten more violence.

Yesterday, Bashir's party issued a statement on state TV declaring that any indictment against the president -- which was issued this morning -- would cause "more violence and blood" in Darfur. Funny, since I could have sworn that Bashir has always claimed that he has no control over the atrocities there.

On a ridiculously early flight this morning, I finally got around to finishing the Sunday New York Times and noticed this little gem in the lead story in the Business section, a sweeping look back at how the United States failed to prepare for today's oil crisis:

Mr. Helms, of course, would be Sen. Jesse Helms, the long-serving senator from North Carolina, who died early Friday, some two days before the paper hit newsstands. The NYT's excuse? The section went to press on Thursday. Egg, meet face.

The authors of the controversial book on the influence of the Israel lobby on U.S. foreign policy have made their first trip to Israel since the book was published. A few hundred students and faculty at Hebrew University turned out to see Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer argue their case. The result? A lively and largely cordial debate. Their visit had its fair share of detractors, but a threatened boycott failed to materialize. In fact, this is about as heated as it got:

International relations student Liad Gilhar, 25, accused the professors of distorting facts and providing fodder for anti-Semites.

"You need to choose your words carefully," Gilhar said.

Walt shot back: "With all due respect, I don't think it is my words that harm Israel, but rather Israel's actions."

A professor criticized the authors for failing to condemn Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has called for Israel to be wiped off the map. "I don't think he is inciting to genocide," Walt responded.

ALESSANDRO DI MEO/POOL/AFP/Getty Images

Incredibly, the situation is Zimbabwe grows ever more outrageous. There is simply no doubt that the runoff election on June 27 is going to be stolen by Mugabe's thugs. Opposition rallies have been banned. Aid organizations have been shuttered and diplomats detained. In a country on the brink of famine, authorities yesterday confiscated food aid earmarked for starving children and doled it out to Mugabe's supporters instead. Jails are being emptied to make room for opposition troublemakers -- anything to intimidate people away from polls (as if top generals weren't already doing a fine job of that). Abductions, beatings, and torture are commonplace since opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai bested President Mugabe at the polls in March.

But where are the outraged public statements? Hitchens is right: A denunciation from Mandela would boom in this enviroment, as would the pope's. (Good to see Desmond Tutu calling Mugabe's regime a "nightmare" yesterday.) South Africa's Mbeki has shown himself spineless in denouncing Mugabe's actions, and this recent statement by President Bush is simply not going to cut it. The polite applause Mugabe earned on his recent trip to Rome was just too much.

What's Bush got to lose? He should be out there every day condemning the brutalization of Zimbabwe's opposition and the inevitability that the country simply won't get anything approaching a free and fair election on June 27. What's preventing him -- or anyone else in a position of power -- from doing more than just throwing stern glances in Mugabe's direction?

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The last thing Beijing wants to see at the Olympic opening ceremonies on August 8 is Tibetan flags, "Stop genocide in Darfur" signs, or similar such provocations from "troublemakers." And given Beijing's paranoia, it's hardly surprising that this year's opening and closing ceremonies are going to have some of the tightest security of any event, ever.

Each ticket for the ceremonies will have a microchip embedded with the user's photograph, passport details, addresses, emails, and telephone numbers. All event tickets also have microchips to prevent counterfeiting, but only the ceremony tickets will contain the personal data. Some have raised fears of data theft, and others question whether activists known to the Chinese authorities could even attempt to attend, since many of them are being detained or at least closely watched ahead of the games. Perhaps the biggest concern is that the tickets will be too effective: If you are attending the ceremonies with a few friends or family members and your tickets get switched among you, expect big delays at the gates.

A new poll by CBS News reveals some serious gloom: 61 percent of Americans polled believe Iraq will never become a stable democracy, up eight percentage points since September. Have they all been reading ForeignPolicy.com?

Here's the question: Which of these do you think is most likely?

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July 11 could not come fast enough for a few million folks dying to get their hands on the new faster, sleeker, cheaper iPhone 3G. (Count me in.) But what I found most interesting about Steve Jobs's big announcement yesterday is Apple's abandonment of its iPhone business model so far: exclusive carrier agreements.

In the six countries where you can officially get an iPhone, Apple has signed deals with mobile carriers (such as AT&T here in the United States) that give Apple a cut of the revenue from the carriers' service plans. But within weeks of the iPhone's launch last year, a massive global gray market in hacked iPhones emerged -- much to Apple's surprise. The company still made money on iPhone handsets, but it was missing out on millions of dollars in revenue it could have gotten from its partners, since more than a million new iPhone users were using hacked phones on different carriers. So, instead of pursuing what was clearly an untenable course, Apple yesterday switched gears, dropping plans for exclusivity agreements in new markets. In other words, they learned from the gray market that their business model simply wasn't the best way to go:

We've changed our business model, from getting a cut of the future revenues to just a more traditional model," Mr. Jobs said in an interview on Monday. "That’s enabled us to roll out around the world much faster."

As for the new business agreement in the States, Apple and AT&T will no longer share revenues as of yesterday. But it still sounds like AT&T will be the exclusive carrier through the end of its multi-year contract, believed to be five years. At the very least, it will be harder to gripe about AT&T's slow download speeds on the new 3G network.

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FP contributor Doug Farah, who wrote the book on Viktor Bout, the world's most notorious arms dealer, has sources telling him that the Russians are offering the Thais (who are holding Bout pending extradition to the United States) just about anything to prevent Bout from being shipped off to trial in America:

After several diplomatic efforts to get Bout out of prison and back to Russia, the Russian government, or at least its military establishment, has decided to let some money and hardware do the talking.

My sources tell me the Russian ambassador in Thailand has met several times with the Thai prime minister, and has offered sweet heart deals on weapons systems, including fighter jets, in exchange for Bout.

In addition, the Russians are offering sweet heart gas and oil deals to sweeten the pot...The question is, why would Bout be so valuable to the Russians, and what is it that they fear he could or would say in a court?

The most obvious answer is that he is deeply in bed and protected by the Russian military establishment and its intelligence services.

What's curious about this situation is the fact that it seemed likely at the time of Bout's arrest in March that there was no way the Thais (and by extension, the Americans) could have gotten their hands on such a prized prisoner unless the Russians had given the go-ahead. Bout allegedly lived openly in Moscow, and if his connections to the Russian intelligence agencies are as strong as many believe, there's reason to believe that someone might have sacrificed him for other (higher) purposes. That said, this could be a case of luck and old-fashioned investigative work coming together and resulting in a major nab, in which case the Russians want him back, not least because of the fear he'll talk. As with all things Bout, this situation is as murky as they come.

Hillary Clinton, desperate to get Florida's primary to count for her, didn't just rely on an easy allusion to the 2000 election debacle while campaigning there yesterday. She went ahead and compared the uncounted votes in Florida to the crisis in ZIMBABWE.

[P]eople go through the motions of an election only to have them discarded and disregarded.”

“We’re seeing that right now in Zimbabwe," Clinton explained. "Tragically, an election was held, the president lost, they refused to abide by the will of the people,” Clinton told the crowd of senior citizens at a retirement community in south Florida.

“So we can never take for granted our precious right to vote." 

So, Hillary is just doing The Onion writers' jobs for them now? Because that's just absurd.