Russia holds all the cards in Abkhazia

Is Georgia teetering on the brink of civil war? Or will the status of the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain an ambiguous frozen conflict? Either way, Russia wins.
On Wednesday, the Russian foreign ministry ratcheted up the pressure on Georgia by establishing legal ties with the two republics, which have been quasi-independent entities since the early 1990s. Georgia's leaders are predictably apoplectic over what they see as a Russian annexation of one third of their territory. Putin claims he wants to take steps to improve relations with Georgia and has instructed his government to lift trade restrictions between the countries. These overtures haven't gone over that well either, though. The United States and European Union strongly criticized Russia's meddling in the breakaway regions, but the Georgians probably sense that Western onlookers aren't prepared to do much to back up their words.
Whatever happens, it's likely to be good for Putin. If violence breaks out in the republics, it effectively scuttles Georgia's bid to join NATO. If the stalemate persists and Georgia is forced to live with the new arrangement, it demonstrates Russia's ability to impose its will on its neighbors without international consequences. In either scenario, Putin also gets to attack Western hypocrisy over the recognition of Kosovo.
I guess "lame duck" doesn't really translate in Russian.












quasi-indendent? Must be
quasi-indendent? Must be Friday.
another inapt vigniette from the biased author
First of all, if conflagration does occur in either Abkhazia or South Ossetia, that would not be categorized as a "civil war," but as an inter-state conflict between Russia and Georgia. Secondly, the author relies on the faulty assumption, when he claims that Russia will benefit from both outcomes. In fact, this is patently false. Kremlin is already becoming diplomatically isolated as Putin's fateful decision on Georgian breakaway regions has been criticized by EU, NATO, OSCE and U.S. Department of State, to name a few. Tbilisi's reaction thus far has been measured, deliberate and multifaceted, so to call it "apoplectic" is an obvious exaggeration that betrays author's noticeable anti-Georgian bias, which has been evident in past Georgia-related postings as well. Third, it is pointless to speculate about what the official Tbilisi expects the Western governments will or won't do in response to Russia's "velvet annexation" of Georgia's regions. At stake here is more than just declarative support for Georgia's territorial integrity and inviolability of its state borders. Russia's actions fully vindicate Georgia's aspirations of eventual NATO membership and possible military confrontation in the Abkhaz conflict zone will only strengthen Tbilisi's resolve while making its appeal more urgent. Western recognition of Kosovo's independence does not give Moscow a carte blanche to carry out geopolitical gerrymandering in the post-Soviet space. To insist on such a causal link is tantamount to admitting full ignorance of the most basic facts from the history of either Kosovo or Abkhaz conflicts. Perhaps the author should consider doing some background readings and significant fact-checking before issuing questionable pontifications about complex topics that obviously go beyond his "analytical" grasp.