While I'm sure not purposefully, this post doesn't quite hit all of the issues at play here. Firstly, there is no actual discussion of SPS being a viable coalition party with the Democrats. In order to continue in government, short of reforming the non-working coalition with DSS (which is not necessarily even an option, as DSS has chosen not to indicate if it will partner with the Radicals or the Dems after elections), is to hope that the LDP and various minority parties pull out enough of the vote. Most figures put the necessary vote for this to occur at DS-36%; LDP-10%; and minority parties a combined 5%, though most realists are expecting each of these parties to fall short by 1-2%. SRS cannot get enough votes to govern without being joined by DSS and probably SPS, which is not a done deal at present.

Also, the issue of being pro-Europe is an interesting, but far more complicated one than indicated here. Stemming from the presidential elections in January, we have seen the SRS particularly develop an effective "pro-europe" campaign combined with national pride - essentially, Towards Europe...but on our terms. The degree to which this is believed by SRS voters demonstrates that comparing results of SRS and DS will not give an accurate picture of the "pro-Europe" segment of the population. Indeed, I think it's hard to make the argument that Serbia - and Serbs - should just be a ok with Kosovo's unilaterial declaration of independence; while those in the international community have come to accept and understand this as the only possible outcome, it is natural that Serbia's citizens are offended by countries accepting, in their minds, the truncation of their country.

The last point I want to make (and apologies - this has gone on far longer than I anticipated) is that there has never really been an issue of nationalist competition between Milosevic and his predecessors. Milosevic himself was never really a nationalist - a primary reason both for his downfall in 2000 and the willingness with which he was handed over to the Hague. Milosevic was a politician willing to manipulate anything he saw as an opportunity to build and retain power - which is exactly how he saw nationalist rhetoric in the 90s. It's also why he was so ready to sell out the Bosnian Serbis during the Dayton negotiations - it was politically advantageous. In contrast, both Nikolic and Kostunica are proven and avowed nationalists who actually believe wholeheartedly in what they're saying. Indeed, this is their appeal.

You hit on a lot of issues I would have liked to have brought to the post, but couldn't given Passport's brief format. Thanks for touching on the complexity of Serbia's upcoming decisions.

Why is it that Serbian politics can never be neatly summarized?