Balkan ghosts stirring in Macedonia?

Mon, 06/02/2008 - 6:37pm

ROBERT ATANASOVSKI/AFP/Getty Images

Seven years ago, it was Albanian-Macedonian tensions that brought the Republic of Macedonia to the brink of war, but given what happened in the days surrounding Macedonia's parliamentary elections last Sunday, it now appears that Albanian-on-Albanian violence poses the greatest threat to Macedonian stability.

Compared with other former Yugoslav republics, Macedonia has been quite the success story. Its declaration of independence from Yugoslavia was followed by years of relative peace. Violence flared up in 2001 when Albanian guerrilla forces launched attacks on the majority Slavic Macedonian authority, but within the year the respective Macedonian and Albanian leaderships had signed on to the Ohrid Agreement, upping protection and rights for Macedonia's 25 percent ethnic Albanian minority.  

And for the most part, Ohrid seems to have worked. Today, Macedonia is an EU candidate country, and it fell just short of a NATO membership invite (no thanks to its neighbor to the south). But rifts within the Albanian community -- between the Albanian Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) -- could launch the country back into pre-Ohrid bloodshed. And if that's the case, the death count has already begun.   

Violence started in the weeks leading up to Sunday's elections with clashes between DUI and DPA members but culminated yesterday when a man with a Kalashnikov reportedly threatened voters at a polling station in the majority Albanian town of Aracinovo while his men stuffed the ballot box. Other sources report that Macedonian police in Aracinovo shot three men, killing one and injuring two in a clash with six armed individuals. The DUI announced that the injured men were party members, accusing the DPA and the police of collaborating to stir up trouble. 

That the violence has largely been contained within the Albanian community is a good sign, but intra-Albanian tensions could nonetheless hamper Macedonia's future government.

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a delicate situation

This is a very delicate situation all the more because efforts on the part of the police to contain the violence may be interpreted in the wrong way. If someone on the ethnic Albanian side decides that Macedonians are siding with their opponents, this may insert anew an ethnic element to the problem. In this worst-case scenario, it will be all against all.

So the government is really in a tight spot - 1) let the ethnic Albanians deal with the situation by themselves in their way and get no invitation from the EU and reprimand from all international institutions; or 2) try to deal with the problem and risk to bring the ethnic element back in.

For the time being they seem to be doing their best - stick to legitimate police measures, backed up by legitimate arguments (fair ad democratic elections) and doing all this in the name of a nation-unifying cause (the way to Europe, which is in every one's interest).
Really hope it works.

I just copy and paste...

... NATO's Secretary General statement on the elections in FYROM:

"The NATO Secretary General is deeply concerned by the OSCE Observer Mission's preliminary conclusions that the 1 June elections in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia did not meet key international standards.

The Mission assessed that, despite many positive elements, election day was marred by violent incidents, intimidation and ballot stuffing in predominantly ethnic areas.

Countries working towards NATO membership must make every effort to meet the democratic standards of the Alliance.

Active steps should be taken to address the security and electoral shortfalls, in particular in the context of the repeat of voting to take place in districts where the electoral process had to be halted.

NATO will carefully assess the OSCE Observer Mission's final conclusions, once the process is complete."

I believe you will find this statement really useful...