Intelligence community dances around climate change

Wed, 06/25/2008 - 6:32pm
FILE; Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Courtesy of Wired's Noah Schactman, here is National Intelligence Council Chairman Thomas Fingar's testimony about the first ever National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change (pdf).

I attended Fingar's testimony on the Hill this morning and was struck less by the NIA's findings -- droughts and crop failures might lead to instability in the third world and coastal flooding may threaten the U.S. defense infrastructure -- than the unique nature of the report itself. Fingar acknowledged this in his testimony to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming:

This study used a fundamentally different kind of analytical methodology from what is typical for an intelligence product such as a National Intelligence Estimate. We depended upon open sources and greatly leveraged outside expertise."

Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Rep. Anna Eshoo and her fellow Democrats at the hearing were excited about a greater future role for open-source intelligence gathering, and Fingar seemed receptive to the concept. But from his testimony, it didn't seem as if the research conducted contained any new information that couldn't be inferred by a layman reading the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was the starting point on the NIA's research. As such, the NIA doesn't really seem to accomplish much beyond stressing the urgency of climate change by describing it as a security issue.

This makes it all the more odd that the actual text of the NIA was classified by the National Intelligence Council. Fingar suggested that releasing specifics about how certain countries would be specifically affected would complicate U.S. diplomatic efforts, though my guess is that the countries in greatest danger from global warming are already well aware of it. Rep. Ed Markey saw a White House agenda in the classification:

If people know specifically what these problems will be and where they will be and who they will affect then perhaps we will finally have the political will to solve the problem... The president doesn't want America to know the real risks of global warming.

I'm mostly curious to know if the report actually contains information that isn't already public knowledge. If nothing else, it would be nice to think that this partisan tug-of-war is being fought over a document that actually matters.

( filed under: )


Advertisement

 

International Security

Will the Congressional Record please note that the national security threat posed by climate change to small island nations is unclassified. http://islandsfirst.wordpress.com/

Whether or not it is public

Whether or not it is public knowledge isn't the question. Presumably climate change data and analyses are not declared 'secret', hence hidden from public view.

The issue is whether the data, and reports, are being taken into consideration per policymaking and planning. My guess is "no". The general practice seems to be to fight fires (in a most ham-fisted fashion) that could have been planned for, and possibly avoided - if not optimally addressed; I don't see why this admittedly huge issue is any different.

The current compulsion to ignore history, ergo winding up "Reinventing the wheel" unfortunately results in that the mistakes of wheel-invention are not taken into account, which costs time, money and resources (and in the case of climate and defense-related matters, they can cost lives).

_____________________________________________________________ Free Trade and FDI Evangelist