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Tuesday's collapse in negotiations in the Doha trade talks was not a complete surprise, yet seemed to amplify the dour mood recently regarding the global economy. As always is the case with trade talks, there were winners and there will be losers.

Despite arguments from some development groups that no deal was better than the one on the table, the Financial Times reports today that poorest countries are the big losers from the breakdown in talks:

The impact of failure is going to be substantial," said Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya's trade minister. "It's always the poorest of the poor who carry the biggest burden."

Among the hardest hit are African cotton farmers, who had hoped for a cut in U.S. cotton subsidies, as well as a contingent of banana-exporting countries hoping for a cut in tariffs from the EU. On the other hand, a rival banana bunch from West Africa, the Caribbean, and the Canary Islands pay no EU import tariff and are happy to see the competition miss out on a deal.

Other winners include, of course, developed-country agriculture interests, who remain shielded against foreign competition by a phalanx of tariffs and subsidies. Some farmers in the United States, however, as well as those in the developing world, will miss out on new markets for their products.

That said, before the recent talks began, some poor countries expressed concern that trade liberalization would open markets too quickly. All in all, the cost to the global economy from the Doha round's demise is hard to quantify and, in the end, not all that large. It's not like trade is going to suddenly dry up. But the talks' failure definitely doesn't do much to improve the mood.