As other commentators have noted, the main factor that seems to be driving Pakistan's stepped-up campaign of violence is its fear of encirclement. Pakistan's spooks and strategic planners have watched with growing unease as Afghan President Hamid Karzai has grown close to India, and they have reacted -- or "rogue elements" have reacted -- by sponsoring attacks on Indian interests in Afghanistan, creating shooting incidents along the Line of Control in Kashmir, and possibly even by organizing attacks within India proper.

India's response so far has been muted, since an escalation of the situation would only help hardliners in Pakistan and further undermine the civilian government. But today, India announced a new, $450 million aid package to Afghanistan. Looks like this proxy war is only just getting started.