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This could take awhile

Mon, 08/18/2008 - 5:53pm

The quote from a senior Russian military commander doesn't really fill me with confidence that the Russian occupation of Georgia is ending any time soon:

I can say for certain when the New Year will come but I cannot give an exact date for the withdrawal of our troops from the conflict area yet," said Col.-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn. "I can only say that we will not be leaving as fast as we came."

Russia seems to be continuing the dismantling of Georgia's miltiary infrastructure even as President Medvedev speaks as if the withdrawal is already happening. In spite of Nogovitsyn's assurances that troops are pulling out of the central Georgian city of Gori, there's no sign that they're leaving.

It's now been almost a week since Medvedev ordered a ceasefire. I'm curious to see how long the Russians can plausibly claim to be withdrawing without any of their troops actually leaving Georgia.

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This could take forever

by Don Bacon on Mon, 08/18/2008 - 5:46pm
Russian presence in part of independent Georgia legally began with the June 24, 1992 Sochi Agreement and has been expanded because of the recent Georgian assault on South Ossetia.The Sochi Agreement created the Joint Control Commission (JCC), and a peacekeeping body, the Joint Peacekeeping Forces group (JPKF) which is under Russian command. So not only will the Russian occupation of present-day Georgia not end any time soon, it won't end at all, despite the Bush/Rice bluster. The talk about beginning a withdrawal (which is different from a withdrawal), as in Iraq or anywhere else troops are stationed, is simply semantics. One squad going back to Russia could be termed as beginning a withdrawal. In this case the talk is based on a cease-fire accord which hasn't yet been published, and its explicit conditions aren't known, allowing Rice to interpret it one way and Medvedev another. But Rice has no troops in Georgia and Medvedev does.

WIll Russia Really Stay in Georgia Though?

by yasst8 on Mon, 08/18/2008 - 10:23pm
And encourage a potential insurgency? I doubt it. It would take a couple road side bombings for Russia to lose face and escalate this into something it does not want. There is plenty of nationalism in Georgia and plenty of Western support that would encourage this. Russia can safely control the situation from the two enclaves and will therefore withdraw there.

Georgia isn't Iraq

by Don Bacon on Mon, 08/18/2008 - 11:30pm
You seem to be comparing Georgia to Iraq. This isn't the US in a resisted military occupation in a country halfway around the world, this is Russia in a former Soviet Republic, on Russia's border, with a sizable Russian population which has been assaulted by the country they're in, resulting in two autonomous provinces which have again been assaulted. The US position, as I understand it, is that Russia should withdraw completely from Georgia including the two provinces. It won't happen, and Bush/Rice will just look even more ridiculous demanding it. The Russians, as before, and as stipulated by the the 1992 Sochi Agreement, will stay in the two provinces and a "security corridor" around them, and the dimensions of this corridor will be determined by Russia. This is the least that will happen -- there might be more. All eyes will be on the Ukraine next.

Bacon Wrote: "Russian

by tortmaster on Tue, 08/19/2008 - 8:49am
Bacon Wrote: "Russian presence in part of independent Georgia legally began with the June 24, 1992 Sochi Agreement and has been expanded because of the recent Georgian assault on South Ossetia." Oh, very cute. Since it began 'legally,' the expansion, logically, is legal, right? The initial entry was legal in the same sense that the expansion is, you are correct: both rights were garnered at the point of gunfire initiated through Russian-backed seperatist activity. Bob Gibson

on cuteness

by Don Bacon on Tue, 08/19/2008 - 1:40pm
If a military force is legally charged with maintaining the peace in a territory, which Russia was in South Ossetia, and that territory is assaulted by an outside force then said military force (Russia, in this case) has the obligation to defend the assaulted territory and defeat the assaulting force, which Russia has done. Should there be a time limit on that force's activities? A withdrawal deadline, perhaps, which the US favors (for Russia in Georgia, but not for the US in Iraq)?