Weekend open thread

Sat, 09/06/2008 - 10:27am
Fire away.
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US Polls

I cannot believe how close this race seems to be. It is astounding. I have a feeling that in almost any other faux democratic country you'd see some kind of backlash against the current administration and the party that brought it to power. Maybe not a crushing defeat, but you know, a solid good 10% ahead in the polls would be expected.

A large majority of Americans have disapproved of Bush for years now, for the lowest approval ratings of any US president. They've increased their national debt and gov't spending across the board to nearly unprecedented levels, got them into two wars they were unlikely to win and one of them under false pretenses they've yet to answer for (but got lucky with Iraq's seeming stabilization). Everytime you turn around, you see another scandal breaking over something crazy shifty and more often than not illegal (Scooter Libby, NSA wiretaps, political discrimination when hiring in the Dept of Justice, that's just off the top of my head).

I mean, Kucinich managed to speak for four hours in a row on why they should impeach them, just a month or two ago. I have a hard conceiving of any litany of grievances that takes four hours to air.

Compare the conventions! The RNC speeches sounded a lot like an opposition party. I choked on my drink listening to Romney bash "liberal elites" for, uh, all of the wrong doing they've done the past, uh, eight years? I don't even understand how the choice of Palin didn't turn off female voters. Oh look, he picked a token young woman.

The issues in this election have been ridiculous. Drilling in Alaska somehow comes across as a sound policy? I don't know guys, I'm just stunned that the GOP is so amazingly good at setting the terms and extremes of American political discourse, so much so that the Democrat-majority Congress is afraid of rocking the boat.

I leave you with two links:
http://www.overcompensating.com/posts/20080904.html
http://www.someecards.com/upload/somewhat_topical/im_leaning_towards_voting_for_the.html

If it makes you feel any better...

Obama is almost guaranteed 260 EC votes (http://www.pollster.com/). That means he only needs 9 more for a win by default or 10 for an outright win. In other words, he only needs Colorado, Virginia, Florida, or Ohio to give him the win. He's ahead in three of four of those, and not far behind in Florida. In contrast, McCain has far fewer solid states in his pocket and has to make up a much larger deficit of EC votes. I think Obama is in a good situation, and I wouldn't trade it for McCain's under any circumstance. The only big worry I have is vote fraud, which is rampant in Ohio and New Mexico. Hopefully this won't be a problem this year...

"guaranteed" and" electoral

"guaranteed" and" electoral college" should NEVER be used in the same sentence prior to the Wednesday after the first Tuesday in November in an election year. And maybe not that soon.

US Polls

I agree that we are living in truly strange times. How this race could be close is beyond my comprehension. If you simply look at the campaigns Obama and McCain are running - let alone their professed beliefs - the difference is astounding.

A year ago no one thought Obama would get the nomination. McCain was favored to do so but if he had any real competition he would have lost. Isn't it part of the president's job to have a plan and to pick people who can make the plan happen? Obama did have a plan to win the nomination and he picked people that helped him make it happen. McCain's campaign would make a good case study of what not to do and who not to do it with. But, son of a gun, there is a reasonable chance of his winning.

I think there are at least two issues at play here - Obama's color and the ineffectiveness of the Democratic Congress. These override the reality that John Hanrahan summed up in a recent post.

Democratic Congress

Yeah, that's something I don't get either.

There was this intense media circus and a serious attempt at impeaching Clinton for lying under oath, back in the day.

Why *haven't* the Democrats in Congress been raising a shitfest from the moment they got elected? It can't all be because some of them supported the Iraq war in the beginning.

Somehow I remember more coverage over GOP filibustering over Congressional recess because they didn't get to vote on ANWR.

Obama

I think that the main issues are 1) Obama's race, obviously, and 2) the diffuse nature of the Democratic coalition.

Regarding (1), although there are certainly some racists around, I think a lot of non-racist people are wary of black politicians. The "black political machine" (Sharpton, Jackson, and others) has a pretty bad reputation, and some people are going to be afraid Obama is part of it.

About (2), the fact is that the Democratic coalition includes working-class people worried about outsourcing and job insecurity, Hispanics who favor continued Mexican immigration, and intellectuals (like me) who support free trade and immigration. It's no wonder that a party with such a diverse bunch of economic interests is finding it hard to come up with a coherent economic strategy.

So I think the closeness of the race is unavoidable. People are going to have to choose whether or not they can bring themselves to trust Obama enough to do the smart thing and throw the GOP bums out.

NSG approved India's nuclear deal. Will Congress follow?

The Nuclear Suppliers Group has approved a waiver for India to buy uranium and nuclear technologies despite not having signed the nonproliferation treatty. Next comes action by the U.S. Congress which if given will open India's markets to U.S. firms.

Congress has a short attention span with the looming Novenmber election. Action on India's deal could wind up being shuffled into the next Congress or never if Rep. Howard Berman, D-Calif, has his way. What do readers think. Deal or no deal for the U.S.?

http://djysrv.blogspot.com/2008/09/nuclear-suupliers-group-approves-india.html

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Idaho Samizdat http://djysrv.blogspot.com