This
evening, President Barack Obama will appear before Congress to deliver the
first State of the Union address of his second term, outlining an agenda and
the likely Washington battle lines for the coming four years. But thus far that
agenda has been fairly inchoate, limited to a muscular inaugural address that
affirmed basic progressive principles but said less about the president's
legislative plans. And while Tuesday's speech will
largely focus on middle-class pocketbook issues, Obama could ultimately
choose to circumvent Capitol Hill gridlock by turning his energies toward
foreign affairs, as Ronald Reagan did in negotiating with Mikhail Gorbachev and
Bill Clinton did in seeking to broker Middle East peace.
Lined up
across from Obama to deliver the Republican response is Sen. Marco Rubio.
Despite his relative inexperience -- Rubio came out of nowhere to win his seat
in 2010 -- the junior senator from Florida is a constant presence on the short list
for 2016 GOP presidential candidates. So if Rubio is destined to deliver the
rejoinder to Obama's opening salvo, what can the American public expect? Has
the Cuban-American begun to articulate a
Rubio doctrine? Here is what we know so far about his worldview.
American engagement: When it comes to the current Republican
foreign-policy camps, Rubio aligns himself far more with the party's
interventionist wing, supporting
military intervention in Libya and urging
stronger American action in support of Syrian rebels. In a foreign
policy address at the Brookings Institution, Rubio spoke of a post-war
order shaped by American engagement with the world, a tradition the country
would be well-served not to abandon but renew: "So yes, global problems do
require international coalitions," he explained. "On that point this
administration is correct. But effective international coalitions don't form
themselves. They need to be instigated and led, and more often than not, they
can only be instigated and led by us." Rubio's decision to affiliate himself
with the GOP's internationalist wing has struck many observers as surprising,
given the senator's ascent as a prodigy of the by-and-large isolationist Tea
Party movement. But the shift also places him in agreement with his party's foreign-policy
elders.
Syria: The slow-burning conflict in
Syria, where two years of violence has left 60,000 dead, has become one of the
hardest tests of American foreign-policy thinking today. Critics have seized on
the Obama administration's cautious approach as evidence of a weak-willed
foreign policy. Here, Rubio has articulated a moderately hawkish approach,
writing in the Wall Street Journal that "diplomacy
doesn't stand a chance in Syria unless the military balance tips against Assad....
[T]he U.S. should make clear that we stand ready to step in and fill key gaps
between the rebels' military needs and our allies' capabilities. Empowering and
supporting Syria's opposition today will give us our best chance of influencing
it tomorrow, to ensure that revenge killings are rare in a post-Assad Syria and
that a new government follows a moderate foreign policy." While repudiating Tea
Party isolationism, the position also strays from Bush-era neoconservatism while
continuing to see the exercise of military power as central to U.S. influence
abroad.
Iran: In his Brookings address, Rubio
expressed a surprising willingness to entertain negotiations on Iran's nuclear
program. "We should be open to negotiations with Iran," he argued. "But always
remember that they should not be deemed a success when they only lead to
further negotiations." Still, he warned, "Stronger pressure shouldn't be
postponed in the expectation our forbearance will encourage Iran to act in good
faith." One should note, however, that Rubio has
also expressed a willingness to carry out a unilateral strike against Iran's
nuclear facilities.
Latin America: In a Los Angeles Times op-ed that
accompanied his Brookings address, Rubio argued that the United States must not
neglect its neighbors to the south, even as it pivots toward the Pacific and
deals with burning crises in the Middle East. "An energy alliance made up of
the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil and a post-Chavez Venezuela" would,
Rubio argued, help establish a "a democratic, peaceful and stable alternative
to the Middle East in global energy production." And where democratic progress
in the region has stalled, Rubio urged the United States to take a more active
role. "We also need to assist Latin America's many fledgling democracies," he
wrote. "Free elections are crucial, but they aren't enough to secure a
democracy.... Sadly, too many Latin American nations seem to have forgotten their
own struggles against authoritarian regimes." Finally, trade agreements and
continued security cooperation would form the bedrock upon which to build a
renewed U.S. foreign policy vis-à-vis Latin America. On their own, the
positions Rubio stakes out on Latin America are unremarkable and boilerplate,
but it is worth noting as a statement of priorities that he chose to devote the
op-ed that accompanied the most significant foreign-policy address of his
career to Latin America, which has become during the past decade a backwater of
the foreign-policy establishment.
China: In the midst of the Republican
presidential campaign, China emerged as a favored villain of Mitt Romney, who
vowed to brand the country a currency manipulator on his first day in office.
But in October, Rubio broke with the prevailing orthodoxy and told
Bloomberg that he thought that
approach was a mistake, saying that "[i]t could kick off a trade war that would
be bad for the economy" and that he agreed with Obama's position on the issue.
Foreign aid: In what might have come as a
shock to his deficit hawk political backers, Rubio came out in favor of foreign
aid at Brookings. "Faced with
historic deficits and a dangerous national debt, there has been increasing talk
of reducing our foreign aid budget," the senator noted. "But we need to
remember that these international coalitions that we have the opportunity to
lead are not just military ones, they can also be humanitarian ones. In every
region of the world, we should always search for ways to use U.S. aid and
humanitarian assistance to strengthen our influence, the effectiveness of our
leadership, and the service of our interests and ideals."
Immigration: While not a cut-and-dry foreign
policy issue, immigration reform is a question near and dear to Rubio, who has
become the GOP's point person on moving a reform package through the Senate. As
a descendant of Cuban-American exiles, Rubio is a beneficiary of the notoriously
lenient immigration rules for Cubans. As a result, many in the American
Latino community view Rubio with distrust -- as a member of a privileged ethnic
group with access to rights not available to other Latino immigrants. In the
Senate, Rubio is pushing for a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants,
a group his mother calls los pobrecitos
(the poor ones), but the exact details of the package have yet to be hammered
out. "I have to balance that humanity with reality," Rubio told Time. "We have immigration laws.
They have to be followed. But yeah, [my mother] reminded me that there's a
human element to this as well. As a policymaker, you have to strike a balance."
Whether the package gains approval is still anyone's guess, and an amnesty
provision -- which Tea Party supporters view as anathema -- is politically
fraught for Rubio.
If any
doubt remains about the political upside to rolling out Rubio tonight, consider
this: the Florida senator will deliver his State of the Union response in both
English and Spanish. On the heels of the GOP's crushing loss of the
Hispanic vote, the political symbolism is clear. But even if Rubio doesn't mind
being trotted out as a political mascot for a night of political theater, his
foreign-policy views make clear that he's something of a wild card in the
Republican Party -- one who has moved away from his far-right origins as a Tea
Party darling.